Today is the first of a two day run with announcements and data. We began this morning with the BOE easing as they restarted bond purchasing. After commodities and equities were trading off of their highs from Tuesday, this news jump started the day as we see gold back through 1620 and the S&P back through 1370. The ECB as expected, cut rates. Since this was priced in the emphasis will be put on the follow up press conference. Also this morning we have ADP jobs data followed by non-farm tomorrow. Gold has been strong and I do not see that changing. If this market can punch through resistance at the 1640 area, a ton of stops will be hit and should allow another $20 move higher. The S&P faces light resistance at these levels. The announcements and data will ultimately move this market but my target remains 1411.

Gold

Important to see a close above 1618**

Resistance -1631-33, 1639-42***

Support –1609**, 1602***, 1589***, 1582.5-85, 1573-78**

S&P

Resistance – 1371-72,1396-97.5, 1400, 1411***

Support –1363.50, 1350***, 1333-32***, 1325**, 1316*, 1304-06.5*

Good morning all. The movers this morning are commodities as bets are being placed on monetary easing in Europe and China. Gold has now pressed through 1609 resistance and looks to be on its way to 1618. Also, crude is up $2 and copper is up 6c. The S&P has been quiet although it finished yesterday strong. If gold can pop through 1618, the next target is 1639-42 the 100dma and previous peak with some resistance at 1631-33 previous volume pocket. A close above 1609 will be very positive. Only a close back below 1600-02 will negate this move. Remember the emphasis will be put on the ECB Thursday for ultimate confirmation. I believe the S&P will follow suit with my middle of the month target being 1411. Once this market can trade through 1363 area there will be additional fresh buying.

Gold

Important to see a close above 1609

Resistance -1618**, 1631-33, 1639-42***

Support –1602***, 1589***, 1582.5-85, 1573-78**

S&P

Resistance – 1363.5, 1396-97.5, 1400, 1411***

Support –1350***, 1333-32***, 1325**, 1316*, 1304-06.5*

Good morning all. Although equities erased early losses following factory and manufacturing data from Europe and Asia, gold has not benefitted. The first test at 1589 proved to be a nice buy for a few bucks. Other than that traders may be slightly disappointed in the lack of mojo. I am now looking for a test to1585, clearing out trades that bought with a stop below 1589 last night and didn’t get out. I would be surprised to not see a test of 1610 area but minimally 1602, by tomorrow ahead of the holiday and ECB meeting. The S&P has put in a new high since the early May selloff. I am looking to find solid support at the 100dma at 1350. A close above 1357 is extremely bullish. A range reversal on Junes 1357 high and pullback comes in at 1411, with policy coordination out of Europe complimented by solid data, I believe this is reachable by mid-month. I want to see the bonds close below 148 to embrace slight pressure on the downside.

Gold

Resistance - 1602***, 1609, 1618**

Support –1589***, 1582.5-85, 1573-78**

S&P

Resistance – 1363.5, 1396-97.5, 1400, 1411***

Support –1350***, 1333-32***, 1325**, 1316*, 1304-06.5*

Good morning all. Europe announced that they will relax lending conditions to Spanish banks and even Italy, liquidity into the market . The S&P has continued higher after its strong close, trading through 1340. Gold is falling right against the range high that we saw 6/25 and 6/27. There was a lot of selling up here both of those days. I will be looking to buy the first test back down to 1573-75. A close above 1589 will likely send the market to 1602 by Monday’s session. I am looking for support at the S&P at 1328-1331(50dma) and resistance at the 100dma at 1349.50, above there it is 1357 and a close above there will cause massive buying to 1400. I will consider selling the first test to 1349. Other than Chicago PMI at 8:45 central, news is light, it may be an interesting day for rumors so if trades do not work, have an exit plan and do not hesitate to pull the trigger.

Gold

A pop above 1589 will run stops, still this market must close above the 1578 -75 range to keep momentum turned back on

Resistance, 1582.5-85*, 1589*, 1602***, 1609, 1618**

Support –1573-78**, 1561-58**, 1545, 1529-25***

S&P-

A close above 1338 will obviously be positive, but a close below will be disappointing at this point

Resistance –1328-1331, 1338**, 1349.75**

Support –1314*, 1304*, 1297**, 1276***

Good evening all. Commodities and stocks got crushed in the early morning following a disappointing German unemployment and poor auctions. This trend continued through the day as US jobless claims went to one of the worst levels of 2012. Following all of this, Gold put in a new swing low at 1547.6. The S&P found a low of 1306.75, just above support level of 1304. The S&P consolidated higher from those lows before rumors out of Europe shot the market back to the highs from 6:00am reaching 1324.25. This just shows you how vulnerable the market is waiting on its toes for any rumors or words at all. With a grain of salt I will be looking to buy 1314 and a stop below today’s lows. Even with this, Gold could not get anything going, only a slight bounce, but even now, it is only $5 from the lows. Gold continues to be a tough trade with its quick rips in both directions. There will be light data out of Europe starting around midnight and into US early trade hours.

Gold

A failure to finish back above 1556 could turn ugly late in the session tomorrow.

Resistance 1575-78, 1582*, 1589*, 1602***, 1609, 1618**

Support –1545, 1529-25***

S&P-

To maintain momentum it must close above 1320.5

Resistance –1327, 1338**, 1349.75**

Support –1314*, 1304*, 1297**, 1276***

Good morning all. The S&P has held its gains from late yesterday ahead of US data. There is speculation that China will add economic stimulus which is supportive. The 1320 area will be a tough nut to crack and close above, but positive data should lead to short covering and the next resistance level of 1327. Gold could not get over its intraday highs from yesterday. Ultimate support is at 1556-58 previous lows. However we are sitting against a light shelf in the mid 60’s and an avoidance of violating this area should lead to buying at 10:30 Europe close and 12:30 floor close.

Gold

A poor close today adds to negative sentiment

Resistance 1575-78, 1582*, 1589*, 1602***, 1609, 1618**

Support –1556-58**, 1529-25***

S&P-

Halfway between Friday and Mondays range is 1317, a close above there will be needed.

Resistance –1320.5**, 1327, 1338**, 1349.75**

Support –1310.5, 1304, 1297**, 1276***

Good morning all. Last night was quiet for the most part. The S&P is trading higher but still sitting below an important shelf level as it continues to fall back this morning. 1314-16 resistance. A close above there today will help momentum. I do believe that some of the worst sell off is in, but a fall back holding the lows or quickly clearing stops below yesterday’s lows would be more convincing. The bonds are giving a slight signal as they are trading a half point from the close yesterday. This market needs a close below 148 to apply true downward pressure. Gold is the quietest last night waiting for a catalyst this week. I will be waiting to buy 1575-78 on the first test. If we don’t get there by late morning I believe that is a signal of strength as gold did trade very well yesterday.

Gold

A close above or below 1586 will help forecast the week.

Resistance 1602, 1609, 1618**

Support –1575-78, 1556-52**, 1529-25***

S&P-

Resistance – 1316-14**, 1327, 1338**, 1349.75**

Support –1304, 1297**, 1276***

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Good evening all. The stocks went through the 1314 support level this morning and tested down to a 1302.5 low. The momentum from Thursdays selloff picked back up as Merkel firmed up her stance against Euro debt sharing. Gold which has been lifeless saw large buying interest as the market couldn’t break new lows. After its late morning rally, the market sat around the 1586 resistance for the remainder of the day, putting in a high of 1589. If this bounce is for real, I want to see a test of 1602 in the next 24 hours. The resistance coming into the day at 1575-78 which did pose as an initial road block will be a solid support level going forward. I will look to buy the first test down there. Back to the stocks and to touch on the Goldman Sachs recommendation to sell at the 100dma. Their target is 1285, I believe that they get long before that level and may even start buying here. Once the market starts bouncing, they will already be in forcing shorts to cover, increasing buying momentum for a rally. A close above 1314 will be very positive for momentum.

Gold

A close above or below 1586 will help forecast the week.

Resistance 1602, 1609, 1618**

Support –1575-78, 1556-52**, 1529-25***

S&P-

Resistance – 1316-14**, 1327, 1338**, 1349.75**

Support –1304, 1297**, 1276***

Good morning all. The S&P has traded higher since the reopen last night as the bank downgrades were priced into the sell off yesterday. This feels like a relief bounce to suck in the bulls only to sell off in the last hour or two of the day. Risk off into the weekend. Resistance is at 1327 area (sloppily to 1332) and mainly at 1338 but I would be surprised to see it get that high. Gold has had an insignificant bounce from its flush out yesterday. I will still be looking to sell the first test at 1575-78. Today is a slow news day so be ready for rumors that can move these markets unexpectedly .

Gold

Resistance 1575-78, 1586***, 1602, 1609, 1618**

Support –1556-52**, 1529-25***

S&P-

Resistance – 1327, 1338**, 1349.75**

Support –1316-14**, 1304, 1297**

Good morning all. Commodities like Copper, Crude and Silver are trading under water this morning as manufacturing was confirmed to be slowing in Europe in China. It provides a tough case to be a buyer after the Fed (Bernanke) confirms the slowing economy here in the US. With no surprise action, the Dollar halted is fall and although trading off of its highs this morning, is searching for a solid support level at 81.50. Gold is going to have a tough time getting going and will lose interest the longer it trades below 1600. Gold traders do not have an argument that there is a direct catalyst for a strong breakout rally here in the near future so buying dips are attractive against support, but selling rips (lightening up) will continue to be the important trade. Long term Gold traders want to have the upside potential, but I believe won’t be holding as heavy positions without the catalyst. 1595 is a halfway retracement, level, I expect support between there and 1590 (lows yesterday) to slow selling. Ultimately the .618 at 1586.5 is my line in the sand. The S&P is holding in very well, and continually trading above its 100dma, I am noticing a movement correlating to less strength in the bonds. Tomorrow will be very important to see if a risk-off trade returns going into the weekend, where bonds see a surge of buying. This could set a tone going forward.

Gold

Must close above 1600

Resistance -1609, 1618**, 1630.5*, 1635

Support –1595-91, 1586.5***, 1573, 1556

S&P-

Resistance – 1355-57, 1365, 1400***

Support – 1338, 1327.25** ,1316.25**, 1304, 1297***