Bill Baruch @ iitrader.com

Today is the first of a two day run with announcements and data. We began this morning with the BOE easing as they restarted bond purchasing. After commodities and equities were trading off of their highs from Tuesday, this news jump started the day as we see gold back through 1620 and the S&P back through 1370. The ECB as expected, cut rates. Since this was priced in the emphasis will be put on the follow up press conference. Also this morning we have ADP jobs data followed by non-farm tomorrow. Gold has been strong and I do not see that changing. If this market can punch through resistance at the 1640 area, a ton of stops will be hit and should allow another $20 move higher. The S&P faces light resistance at these levels. The announcements and data will ultimately move this market but my target remains 1411.

Gold

Important to see a close above 1618**

Resistance -1631-33, 1639-42***

Support –1609**, 1602***, 1589***, 1582.5-85, 1573-78**

S&P

Resistance – 1371-72,1396-97.5, 1400, 1411***

Support –1363.50, 1350***, 1333-32***, 1325**, 1316*, 1304-06.5*

Good morning all. The movers this morning are commodities as bets are being placed on monetary easing in Europe and China. Gold has now pressed through 1609 resistance and looks to be on its way to 1618. Also, crude is up $2 and copper is up 6c. The S&P has been quiet although it finished yesterday strong. If gold can pop through 1618, the next target is 1639-42 the 100dma and previous peak with some resistance at 1631-33 previous volume pocket. A close above 1609 will be very positive. Only a close back below 1600-02 will negate this move. Remember the emphasis will be put on the ECB Thursday for ultimate confirmation. I believe the S&P will follow suit with my middle of the month target being 1411. Once this market can trade through 1363 area there will be additional fresh buying.

Gold

Important to see a close above 1609

Resistance -1618**, 1631-33, 1639-42***

Support –1602***, 1589***, 1582.5-85, 1573-78**

S&P

Resistance – 1363.5, 1396-97.5, 1400, 1411***

Support –1350***, 1333-32***, 1325**, 1316*, 1304-06.5*

Good morning all. Although equities erased early losses following factory and manufacturing data from Europe and Asia, gold has not benefitted. The first test at 1589 proved to be a nice buy for a few bucks. Other than that traders may be slightly disappointed in the lack of mojo. I am now looking for a test to1585, clearing out trades that bought with a stop below 1589 last night and didn’t get out. I would be surprised to not see a test of 1610 area but minimally 1602, by tomorrow ahead of the holiday and ECB meeting. The S&P has put in a new high since the early May selloff. I am looking to find solid support at the 100dma at 1350. A close above 1357 is extremely bullish. A range reversal on Junes 1357 high and pullback comes in at 1411, with policy coordination out of Europe complimented by solid data, I believe this is reachable by mid-month. I want to see the bonds close below 148 to embrace slight pressure on the downside.

Gold

Resistance - 1602***, 1609, 1618**

Support –1589***, 1582.5-85, 1573-78**

S&P

Resistance – 1363.5, 1396-97.5, 1400, 1411***

Support –1350***, 1333-32***, 1325**, 1316*, 1304-06.5*

Good morning all. Europe announced that they will relax lending conditions to Spanish banks and even Italy, liquidity into the market . The S&P has continued higher after its strong close, trading through 1340. Gold is falling right against the range high that we saw 6/25 and 6/27. There was a lot of selling up here both of those days. I will be looking to buy the first test back down to 1573-75. A close above 1589 will likely send the market to 1602 by Monday’s session. I am looking for support at the S&P at 1328-1331(50dma) and resistance at the 100dma at 1349.50, above there it is 1357 and a close above there will cause massive buying to 1400. I will consider selling the first test to 1349. Other than Chicago PMI at 8:45 central, news is light, it may be an interesting day for rumors so if trades do not work, have an exit plan and do not hesitate to pull the trigger.

Gold

A pop above 1589 will run stops, still this market must close above the 1578 -75 range to keep momentum turned back on

Resistance, 1582.5-85*, 1589*, 1602***, 1609, 1618**

Support –1573-78**, 1561-58**, 1545, 1529-25***

S&P-

A close above 1338 will obviously be positive, but a close below will be disappointing at this point

Resistance –1328-1331, 1338**, 1349.75**

Support –1314*, 1304*, 1297**, 1276***

Good evening all. Commodities and stocks got crushed in the early morning following a disappointing German unemployment and poor auctions. This trend continued through the day as US jobless claims went to one of the worst levels of 2012. Following all of this, Gold put in a new swing low at 1547.6. The S&P found a low of 1306.75, just above support level of 1304. The S&P consolidated higher from those lows before rumors out of Europe shot the market back to the highs from 6:00am reaching 1324.25. This just shows you how vulnerable the market is waiting on its toes for any rumors or words at all. With a grain of salt I will be looking to buy 1314 and a stop below today’s lows. Even with this, Gold could not get anything going, only a slight bounce, but even now, it is only $5 from the lows. Gold continues to be a tough trade with its quick rips in both directions. There will be light data out of Europe starting around midnight and into US early trade hours.

Gold

A failure to finish back above 1556 could turn ugly late in the session tomorrow.

Resistance 1575-78, 1582*, 1589*, 1602***, 1609, 1618**

Support –1545, 1529-25***

S&P-

To maintain momentum it must close above 1320.5

Resistance –1327, 1338**, 1349.75**

Support –1314*, 1304*, 1297**, 1276***

Good morning all. The S&P has held its gains from late yesterday ahead of US data. There is speculation that China will add economic stimulus which is supportive. The 1320 area will be a tough nut to crack and close above, but positive data should lead to short covering and the next resistance level of 1327. Gold could not get over its intraday highs from yesterday. Ultimate support is at 1556-58 previous lows. However we are sitting against a light shelf in the mid 60’s and an avoidance of violating this area should lead to buying at 10:30 Europe close and 12:30 floor close.

Gold

A poor close today adds to negative sentiment

Resistance 1575-78, 1582*, 1589*, 1602***, 1609, 1618**

Support –1556-58**, 1529-25***

S&P-

Halfway between Friday and Mondays range is 1317, a close above there will be needed.

Resistance –1320.5**, 1327, 1338**, 1349.75**

Support –1310.5, 1304, 1297**, 1276***

Good morning all. Last night was quiet for the most part. The S&P is trading higher but still sitting below an important shelf level as it continues to fall back this morning. 1314-16 resistance. A close above there today will help momentum. I do believe that some of the worst sell off is in, but a fall back holding the lows or quickly clearing stops below yesterday’s lows would be more convincing. The bonds are giving a slight signal as they are trading a half point from the close yesterday. This market needs a close below 148 to apply true downward pressure. Gold is the quietest last night waiting for a catalyst this week. I will be waiting to buy 1575-78 on the first test. If we don’t get there by late morning I believe that is a signal of strength as gold did trade very well yesterday.

Gold

A close above or below 1586 will help forecast the week.

Resistance 1602, 1609, 1618**

Support –1575-78, 1556-52**, 1529-25***

S&P-

Resistance – 1316-14**, 1327, 1338**, 1349.75**

Support –1304, 1297**, 1276***

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Good evening all. The stocks went through the 1314 support level this morning and tested down to a 1302.5 low. The momentum from Thursdays selloff picked back up as Merkel firmed up her stance against Euro debt sharing. Gold which has been lifeless saw large buying interest as the market couldn’t break new lows. After its late morning rally, the market sat around the 1586 resistance for the remainder of the day, putting in a high of 1589. If this bounce is for real, I want to see a test of 1602 in the next 24 hours. The resistance coming into the day at 1575-78 which did pose as an initial road block will be a solid support level going forward. I will look to buy the first test down there. Back to the stocks and to touch on the Goldman Sachs recommendation to sell at the 100dma. Their target is 1285, I believe that they get long before that level and may even start buying here. Once the market starts bouncing, they will already be in forcing shorts to cover, increasing buying momentum for a rally. A close above 1314 will be very positive for momentum.

Gold

A close above or below 1586 will help forecast the week.

Resistance 1602, 1609, 1618**

Support –1575-78, 1556-52**, 1529-25***

S&P-

Resistance – 1316-14**, 1327, 1338**, 1349.75**

Support –1304, 1297**, 1276***

Good morning all. The S&P has traded higher since the reopen last night as the bank downgrades were priced into the sell off yesterday. This feels like a relief bounce to suck in the bulls only to sell off in the last hour or two of the day. Risk off into the weekend. Resistance is at 1327 area (sloppily to 1332) and mainly at 1338 but I would be surprised to see it get that high. Gold has had an insignificant bounce from its flush out yesterday. I will still be looking to sell the first test at 1575-78. Today is a slow news day so be ready for rumors that can move these markets unexpectedly .

Gold

Resistance 1575-78, 1586***, 1602, 1609, 1618**

Support –1556-52**, 1529-25***

S&P-

Resistance – 1327, 1338**, 1349.75**

Support –1316-14**, 1304, 1297**

Good morning all. Commodities like Copper, Crude and Silver are trading under water this morning as manufacturing was confirmed to be slowing in Europe in China. It provides a tough case to be a buyer after the Fed (Bernanke) confirms the slowing economy here in the US. With no surprise action, the Dollar halted is fall and although trading off of its highs this morning, is searching for a solid support level at 81.50. Gold is going to have a tough time getting going and will lose interest the longer it trades below 1600. Gold traders do not have an argument that there is a direct catalyst for a strong breakout rally here in the near future so buying dips are attractive against support, but selling rips (lightening up) will continue to be the important trade. Long term Gold traders want to have the upside potential, but I believe won’t be holding as heavy positions without the catalyst. 1595 is a halfway retracement, level, I expect support between there and 1590 (lows yesterday) to slow selling. Ultimately the .618 at 1586.5 is my line in the sand. The S&P is holding in very well, and continually trading above its 100dma, I am noticing a movement correlating to less strength in the bonds. Tomorrow will be very important to see if a risk-off trade returns going into the weekend, where bonds see a surge of buying. This could set a tone going forward.

Gold

Must close above 1600

Resistance -1609, 1618**, 1630.5*, 1635

Support –1595-91, 1586.5***, 1573, 1556

S&P-

Resistance – 1355-57, 1365, 1400***

Support – 1338, 1327.25** ,1316.25**, 1304, 1297***

Sunday nights open was deja vu. Very similar to last week, we saw a strong open, particularly in the S&P which has now turned into a red day. The .618 retracement from 1405 highs to 1255.5 lows is 1348. The high came in at 1347.50, right against the 100dma 1348.25.  There is obviously a lot of resistance at that area. Friday’s high was right at the 50dma 1338, and after a strong open, I believe the market needs to close above there in order to maintain momentum in the direct future before the FOMC. Support should be found at a volume pocket and 50% retracement at 1324-1322.50, I will look to buy the first test down there. Next support comes in at the more recent .618 at 1316.25. Gold however, has been somewhat quiet sitting right in its range as traders partially seem uncertain and partially confused on where this market belongs in the intermediate term. With the FOMC Tuesday and Wednesday everyone will be eyeing the verbiage used out of the Fed. Day traders should continue to play the ranges with a respective bias. A close above the 1630 level is very bullish and the only signal that seems to be on the board right now as we await mid-week. Opportunities to buy at 1610, if available are very attractive.

Gold-

Resistance - 1624-27***, 1630.5*, 1642, 1664 (100dma), 1684 (200dma)

Support –1618, 1609-11, 1601-02**, 1595, 1586**, 1582*, 1556

S&P

Resistance – 1338*, 1348.25***(100dma), 1365

Support – 1324-1322.50**, 1316.25**, 1304, 1297***

Gold sat quiet in its volume pocket last night matching yesterday’s highs at 1629. In addition to increased buying interest above there, there will be a lot of stops now. Nothing really changes from last night’s report here, buying at the support is attractive but after sitting here all night, I will now keep a short time frame on longs even at lower levels. The S&P has benefited from speculation out of Europe, trading above previous highs (discounting Sunday night). The next target remains 1345 and 1354. The Bonds are moving positive and well off the lows, they look strong at the moment. It will be tough for traders to carry large positions long stocks into the weekend, liquidation late will not surprise me. Traders must pay attention to the headlines.

Gold-

Resistance - 1624-27***, 1630.5*, 1642, 1666 (100dma), 1686 (200dma)

Support –1618, 1609-11, 1601-02**, 1595, 1586**, 1582*, 1556

S&P June -

A close above 1334 previous highs is technically very bullish

Resistance –1345*, 1354***

Support –  1328, 1320*, 1305**, 1289***

Gold has performed well overnight, grinding higher but into its resistance pocket at a 1624.9 high. Currently just above 1620 before jobless claims. I still stand by the fact that if this market can get through its volume pocket and stick its neck through 1630, you will see added buying interest in fear of missing a move. The S&P, range bound more so than Gold traded very well last night relative to its very poor performance into the close yesterday. The market put in a high at 1322 but is currently trading lower, falling back below 1317 going into Jobless Claims this morning. A large range has seen a lot of volume (in a light volume market) 1317-1327, but the market doesn’t have a catalyst at the moment to pop through here and follow through. At this point it is tough to “guess” what the market wants to hear, a poor Jobless claims ahead of this weekend’s Greek elections and the FOMC meeting next week to push QE3 or a solid Jobless Claims which may diminish the push for QE. Continue to play the ranges and if the trade is not working, get out. Use the resistance levels as selling, but adapt to what may be a break out. If you trade the news, have your hand on the trigger in this type of market, and know where you jump ship.

Gold-

Pivot support 1618 (50dma), closing above remains bullish

Resistance - 1624-27***, 1630.5*, 1642, 1666 (100dma), 1686 (200dma)

Support –1609-11, 1601-02**, 1595, 1586**, 1582*, 1556

S&P –

Pivot 1314-1318, a close below will cause consolidation lower, we closed at

Resistance – 1325-28**, 1334, 1342, 1354***

Support –  1305**, 1289***

Following their fierce light volume rally’s off of the lows yesterday, gold and the S&P both stayed quiet to lower last night. Gold is falling back against it’s key 1609 area, which I don’t want to see it sit at, fear alone may see buyers from yesterday lighten up towards the end of the week. A press towards the mid 1620s could be a catalyst from price action alone as the bull clan rushes in, fearing they will miss the next significant rally. The S&P traded against an important 1325 level and has done nothing wrong this morning. Traders fear that the market is on the topside of its range, but consistent trading above 1318 should attract buying interest. If the bonds maintain trading in the red, it will support the S&P trade.

Gold-

Pivot support 1609, closing above remains bullish

Resistance –1618-19, 1624-27**

Support – 1601-02**, 1595, 1586**, 1582*, 1556

S&P –

Pivot 1325

Resistance – 1334, 1342, 1354***

Support –  1318, 1314, 1305**, 1289***

Gold continued to chop around last night. With no follow through from yesterday’s late day recovery this market has no clear direction. There is no correlation between the S&P, Gold and Euro at this point. Gold has held 1586 support so far, but a violation of 1582.7 and yesterday’s lows should be very bearish. With data today, but a larger slate tomorrow, I wouldn’t imagine this market following through to either the upside or downside before tomorrow. The same goes for the S&P, after recovering from oversold territory. The major 1305 support area held for the most part with a small violation. There will be some resistance that should stand in the way from a volume pocket at 1317-19. A close above there should provide some momentum into the rest of the week. Trades need to be defined since the direction is very unclear.

Gold-

Close above or below 1592 will be important for momentum to either side

Resistance –1592, 1601-02**, 1609**, 1614-16, 1624-27**

Support – 1586, 1582*, 1574, 1566, 1556

S&P –

Resistance – 1317-19, 1325, 1334, 1342, 1354***

Support –  1305**, 1289***

I was blantently wrong looking for support last night from yesterdays lows to 1574. My thoughts were that the destruction to the downside was enough to clear out weak longs. Well the market again ran to new lows at 1556 but didn’t spend a lot of time there making a quick bounce higher and consolidation from 1566-1583 areas. A close below 1574 will keep a strong downward sentiment . A close back above 1583-86 will be positve, as a close back above 1593-95 will be bullish. 

Aside from gold taking it on the chin the Euro is down over a penny. This emphasizes that expectations were put on Bernanke to give more of a hint towards further easing yesterday. The S&P has continued to press lower but did hold major support so far at 1305 trading almost 25 points from yesterday’s highs. Although only trading 1310, the bonds have traded back above 150 almost 2 points from yesterday’s highs. There is some more data this morning including US trade balance. 

Gold-

Resistance – 1586, 1595, 1601-02***, 1609, 1614-16, 1624-27**

Support – 1574, 1565, 1556, 1545, 1532**

S&P –

Resistance – 1325 (light), 1329 (light), 1334, 1342, 1354***

Support –  1305**, 1289***

Today washed out all of the week longs in Gold, the market feel back to a very important level which we have seen a ton of volume over the last month, 1575. The .618 now from the range highs at 1642.4 and lows at 1532.1 falls at 1574.2. Also, the highs from 5/31 were at 1574.6. I like the market down here. I think it was a violent pull back, but a healthy pull back. If the market closes below what is now the all important 1574 level, then that will not only negate bull arguments, but cause a lot of exiting from the market. Moving forward, the 1591 level has been a support on theses updates, I am very encouraged to see a close at this level. The next resistance is 1601-02 which will be very tough to get through. A close above this will be very bullish. In a smaller scope, 1586 will be a support level overnight and should be a good buy on the first test. 1595 will be a resistance and would be a good sell for the first test, however, I think the market will ultimately go through this by Monday. The S&P has seen a lot of covering this afternoon, which has surprised me. The market fished for support above 1310, yesterday afternoon’s initial high. With Bernanke not giving any bullish news, the S&P couldn’t quite get to its main 1334 resistance and I think longs covered in a hurry, losing mojo. Initially, the 1317 level held but eventually broke. I again am encouraged to see the market finish up right there. We aren’t looking for any major data being released tomorrow, however, it could play as a catalyst in this type of wavy market (bulls left disappointed and looking for a reason to buy and a reason to dump). 

Gold-

1591-92, a close above or below very important

Resistance – 1595 (light ), 1601-02***, 1609, 1614-16, 1624-27**

Support – 1586*, 1574***, 1562, 1545, 1532**

S&P –

1317-19 very important to close above or below

Resistance – 1325 (light), 1329 (light), 1334, 1342, 1354***

Support – 1310, 1305**, 1289***

The story right now is that China cut rates and Gold, S&P and euro are seeing a further boost. The market quietly played the range that we talked about going into this morning, 1627-1616. Ahead of Bernanke talking today, this is a worldwide easing policy that should help commodities and foreign currencies alike. Still, traders will focus on the data and Bernanke this morning to confirm a move back to yesterday’s highs in gold. But I do find the support levels increasingly higher important and encouraging to the bulls. The S&P now trading at 1325 should test its next upside target at 1334 but ultimately has the 100dma sitting just above 1350 where it meets the 50dma. 

Gold

Must close above 1616

Resistance –  1624-27, 1632**, 1641**, 1670 (100dma)

Support – , 1609** 1602, 1591

S&P

Very bullish to continue closing above 1317-19

Resistance 1334**, 1342*, 1354***

Support –1317-19, 1305*, 1289**, 1280

Gold stalled once again in the mid to high 1620’s resistance range with a high of 1624.8. Now trading below 1620 and with a low of 1614. I would like to see it hold that low. However, I would not be surprised that if it cannot get any mojo going this morning to quickly swing down to the 1609-10 area and clear out weak longs before finding a solid support. The S&P has been quiet and is currently trading lower. A close below 1275 today is very discouraging. The bonds have been choppy but after trading a point from the lows and now backing off, it may provide some support for a stock market that surely needs it. Spain came out and asked for help last night which may help the progress in talks. Also US ISM this morning at 9 central.

Gold

Must close above 1616

Resistance –  1624-27, 1632**, 1641, 1670 (100dma)

Support – , 1609** 1602, 1591

S&P

Must close above 1275

Resistance –1280, 1287.25, 1294*,1306*, 1317-19*

Support –1257**, 1245**

What a day Friday. Gold reminded everyone that it can still act as a currency and safe haven. After running stops at the 50dma it was able to pop above 1630 and settle in the mid 1620s by the end of the day. With a disappointing unemployment report, previous reports being revised and the constant evolving issues in Europe, money raced into gold. The S&P has gone into a correction mode, being dragged down for those reasons. Japan opened last night down almost 2% and JGBs hitting the lowest yield since 2003.The S&P traded as low as 1262 during the same period of time however, it has been able to consolidate and slow down the bleeding. Currently trading at 1277, I want to see it close above 1275 where the 200dma is. Today is light in data other than a French auction. I want to imagine that Fridays trend will continue and the Gold market has a next upside target of the 1670 area, to the 100dma. With volatility up on Friday, there should be great trading ranges. I am looking for initial support at 1616 and then 1609 more importantly 1609, the low mid-day Friday. A close above the 50dma and the volume shelf that sits at 1624-27 would be extremely encouraging to the bulls.

Gold

Resistance –  1624-27 (50dma and previous low shelf, a close above here is very bullish in the immediate term), 1632**, 1641 (rough # but breakdown level early May) 1670 (100dma)

Support – 1616 (tough level was the low 4/4, and volume pocket Friday) 1609** (low before midday rally), 1602, 1591

S&P

Resistance – 1287.25, 1294*,1306*, 1317-19*

Support –1275, 1257, 1245**